Should people vote for the Lespwa coalition's presidential candidate René Préval or should they boycott the de facto regime's elections now scheduled for Feb. 7, 2006?

This question is now confounding the Haitian people and dividing the forces struggling against the Feb. 29, 2004 coup d'état which toppled Haiti's constitutional government.

The confusion has become even greater in recent days as a rift has occurred in the putschist coalition which backed President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's overthrow. On the one hand, Washington and the U.N. occupation forces at its service want elections to be held on Feb. 7, no matter what, so that they can "finalize" the coup d'état and replace the hugely unpopular, repressive and corrupt regime of de facto Prime Minister Gérard Latortue. They may even be ready to accept a victory by former president and prime minister René Préval, who represents Haiti's "enlightened" bourgeoisie, despite the reservations some arch-reactionary sectors in Washington may have about Préval's coziness with Cuba.

A Jan. 24 front-page article in the New York Times presents the Préval candidacy in a very favorable light. It quotes a U.N. official chastising Haiti's elite for thinking that "they could get rid of one government and have the country to themselves and their friends." The official adds bitingly that "Préval has come and ruined the party."

Indeed, representatives of Haiti's two ruling groups, the traditional bourgeoisie and the big-landowners (represented by the neo-Duvalierist or "Macoute" sector), are alarmed by Préval's manifest popularity, which far surpasses that of any one of the other 34 candidates. This popularity issues from Préval's perceived closeness to Aristide, a rapport which even Préval admits is overstated. Bourgeois and neo-Duvalierist politicians along with "civil society" spokespersons have started to denounce and oppose the elections, seeing the possibility that their candidates will not walk away with the presidency.

Now some Haitian ruling groups have begun calling for an election boycott and even alluding to disruption. De facto town officials and hooligans in St. Marc brutally dispersed a Préval campaign rally on Jan. 18, burning two vehicles and destroying the campaign's rostrum. This type of intimidation tactic has only encouraged more of the Haitian masses to rally to Préval's candidacy. These masses hope that they can reenact the election victory of Dec. 16, 1990, when the last-minute dark-horse candidate, Father Jean-Bertrand Aristide, easily won Washington-sponsored elections.

But the circumstances of Haiti's 1990 election and that of 2006 are completely different, and the dangers and illusions of the Préval candidacy must be made clear.

To begin with, in 2006, the elections are being held under a coup and a foreign military occupation, with the de facto and occupation authorities completely controlling and financing the polling. This was not the case in 1990.

Under today's scenario, the Feb. 7 elections offer only three possible outcomes, and they are all bad. .

1) A Massacre: It is very possible that, no matter what Washington's warnings, the bourgeoisie and the Macoutes could send out gunmen to massacre voters on Feb. 7 if they sense that Préval may win. This is what happened on Nov. 29, 1987 when the Macoutes feared a victory by the bourgeoisie's candidate Gérard Gourgue. Macoutes and soldiers machine-gunned and macheted dozens of voters to death, wounding hundreds. .

2) A Selection: Despite Préval's obvious popularity among the masses, it is still possible that sectors controlling the election, through any number of means, manage to have another candidate "selected." The Bush Administration is not usually swayed by public opinion and is ready to carry out brazen election theft, by which it has hoisted even itself into power.

Also, de facto election authorities have already restricted the number of voting stations in popular quarters, which can be an excuse or a real way to restrict votes for Préval. Occupation and de facto authorities will also have full control over the touch-screen machines and vote counting. .

3) A Figurehead: Even if neither of these scenarios were to unfold, and René Préval were to win the presidency, he would not be able to implement a popular or progressive program, even if he wanted to. He would preside under the auspices of a foreign military occupation. Mass acceptance of his victory would mean legitimization of the 2004 coup.

Under much easier circumstances during his 1996-2000 administration, Préval has already revealed that he was ready to bow to key elements of the imperialist agenda, privatizing state industries like the flour mill and the cement factory, signing treaties to allow the US military to freely enter Haitian waters and airspace, and cracking down on anti-neoliberal protests.

Furthermore, election engineers might allow Préval to win the presidency, while making sure that the legislative races go to a less "conflicted" party. The Haitian prime minister, in whom almost all executive power resides, is drawn from the parliament's majority party.

For all these reasons, it is clear that a Préval candidacy is a lose/lose/lose proposition. Whether he loses or win, the people lose. It is a mirage, a trap, which can only lead the people to legitimate a coup and occupation. Repression and neoliberal reform will continue. Préval can be no more than either a hostage or a collaborator in Washington's occupation regime.

Although Préval's candidacy is sponsored by the Louvri Baryè party and the KOREGA (which make up the Lespwa, or Hope, coalition), many from Aristide's Lavalas Family party are opportunistically defecting to the Préval campaign in the hopes of getting a state job.

Meanwhile, the leadership of the Lavalas Family party continues to say that no free elections can be held until all the hundreds of Lavalas political prisoners have been released, the Lavalas political exiles, including President Aristide, are allowed to return, and a national dialogue begun. In addition to these conditions, the National Popular Party (PPN) says that no elections can be held under the auspices of a foreign military occupation, which is against both Haitian and international law.

For all these reasons, Haitian voters should boycott the Feb. 7 elections and not be lured by the illusion that the candidacy of René Préval can resolve any of their problems. If Washington's strategists chooses not to block Préval's candidacy, they will only use it to legitimize their brazen and never internationally or popularly accepted 2004 coup through a classic bait-and-switch maneuver. .

Last week, Jean-Juste and his supporters suffered a cruel blow. A Haitian judge first dismissed charges that Jean-Juste was involved in the murder of journalist Jacques Roche, which occurred when he was out of the country. This raised expectations that he would be quickly released and brought to Miami.

But these hopes were dashed when Judge Jean Peres Paul, who arrested two journalists for "disrespect" last September (see Haïti Progrès, Vol. 23, No. 27, 9/14/2005), then indicted Jean-Juste on lesser charges of weapons possession and criminal conspiracy, thereby keeping him in jail.

"It is simply outrageous, " said Kevin Pina, the North American journalist who was arrested along with his Haitian colleague, Jean Ristil, by Peres Paul. "I was there when Peres' team was searching Jean-Juste's house, and they made it very clear that they had found absolutely no illegal weapons. For them to concoct this charge now is just incredible."

Brian Concannon, Jr. of the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti (IJDH) explained in his weekly Haiti update that the charges are "without legal or factual foundation."

" They are based," he writes, "on Fr. Gerry's employment as a chaplain at the National Palace under Haiti's ousted constitutional government. His position entitled him to five security guards, who were issued a total of three pistols and two shotguns by the government. The ordonnance [indictment] charges Fr. Gerry with illegal arms possession, even though there is no evidence that the security guards lack a valid license, that their employment has been terminated, that the National Palace authorities have asked for the guns back or that the guns were involved in any illegal activity. The conspiracy charge does not allege that Fr. Jean-Juste or anyone else planned or engaged in illegal activity; its sole basis is that he refused to tell the judge the names of his five security guards."

Concannon goes on to explain that Jean-Juste would be tried by a single judge, not a jury, where his chances of conviction are high. "As the ordonnance is written, the prosecutor would not need to prove that the guns are illegal or that anyone engaged in or planned any illegal activity," he said. The conspiracy charge carries a sentence of forced labor for 3-15 years.

The de facto Haitian government and the U.S. embassy are pressuring Jean-Juste's IJDH lawyer, Mario Joseph, not to appeal the ruling but to go to trial. They promise that Jean-Juste would be pardoned if convicted.

Meanwhile, Jean-Juste remains in jail, although "the prosecutor could release Fr. Gerry for life-saving treatment with less than 30 minutes' paperwork," Concannon concludes. "Fr. Gerry, who wants to clear his name in a fair trial and has appeared at court or the police station every time he has been summoned, has promised to return if he is provisionally released."

This week, a letter from Jean-Juste was smuggled out of jail. In it, Jean-Juste explains how the "Big Boss," presumably the U.S. government, limits his contacts with the media. He also poignantly but bravely describes how he is preparing for death, if he remains deprived of qualified medical treatment in prison. .

Friends, Compatriots and All: .

It is not easy for me to communicate to you through the media. It is forbidden by my jailers. That order comes from the Big Boss, the invisible one in Haiti.

With heart broken I have followed most of the big events in Haiti. Year 2005 has been very rough in Haiti. Tragedy after tragedy. As we have survived it, I remain grateful to God for you and for me. With the grace of God, I hope that you and I and all men and women of good will are doing our best to drastically improve life in Haiti.

My health is quitting me. Some physicians say that a type of cancer called leukemia is attacking my cells. Death may come soon if I do not receive treatment. Supporters from Haiti and around the world are keeping the pressure on. Others are calling to the living God with tears in their eyes. Unfortunately, some people think I am faking. They wish my death. Whatever position someone may take does not matter to me. Doing God's will has been my motto.

On February 7, 2006, I will reach the age of 60 years. I think I was very lucky in this life. Most of my compatriots died between 45 and 55 years. I am already an exception. If I can, I would like to take the opportunity to raise the death issue before I depart from earth. Each one of us has to go. Unfortunately, I will leave more work for you. However, I believe God always arises new workers for his vineyard. Plus, from above, I'll be so busy meeting God's family members who enter heaven, so do not worry about me.

As I am writing this communique, some people, friends of mine, enter the jail crying, with tears flowing down their cheeks. That makes me uncomfortable, but what can I do to stop it? Death in the risen Christ is not the end of life. It is a passage, a necessary one from earth to heaven. I am looking forward to discover, thanks to Jesus, the glorious heavenly life. So many ancestors, friends, relatives, parents, martyrs, militants, justice and freedom lovers to greet.

Do not worry for me, as Jesus once told us, worry for yourselves. Worry for yourselves. You have work to do. You do not have the means yet, or the means may be hidden. Please listen to God, enjoy putting his gospel into your lives and with him God the Father, the Son and the Holy Spirit, you will build a better world.

Open your intelligence, open your hearts and minds and be creative to exploit the wealth in our own world, to make a better living for each other. Yes, you can. Yes, we can. Let love triumph, let its fruits be shared and happy days for all.

Finally, let me tell you as a Christian, I believe in miracles. Miracles individually and collectively. Nothing is impossible for God. God may directly touch me and I may live a few more years with you. He may work marvelously through physicians and make miracles take place. Be in peace! Do your best. Let the will of God be done. Au revoir! .

Gerard Jean-Juste